This just in: A majority of Americans don't think Iran should have nuclear weapons, and that Iran can't be trusted. Now, to those of us who have been following the doings of the Islamic Republic since, oh, 1979, already knew these things. Still, the recent Operation Epic Fury and the ongoing attempts to broker some deal with the defanged Iran have brought it to the forefront of pretty much everyone's attention.
A new I&I/TIPP poll is showing just how much Americans distrust Iran, and some of the results are a tad unexpected.
As the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to unfold amid ongoing talks and threats of further possible military action, the national online I&I/TIPP Poll asked 1,589 voters several questions about Iran. The survey, taken from May 26 to May 28, has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The first question: “How much of a threat do you believe Iran poses to stability in the Middle East?”
Among all respondents, 64% said it was either “a very serious threat” (32%) or a “somewhat serious threat” (32%), while only 23% described it as “not much of a threat” (16%) or “no threat at all” (7%). “Not sure” responses were 13%.
This question marks one of those rare areas where a bipartisan consensus exists. A clear majority of Democrats (57% serious threat, 31% not serious threat), Republicans (75% serious threat, 17% not serious threat), and independents (63% serious threat, 22% not serious threat) all broadly agree.
57 percent of Democrats is a significant majority. While it's apparent that 31 percent of Democrats (and, to be fair, 17 percent of Republicans and 22 percent of independents) just haven't been paying attention to Iran for the last 47 years, that 57 percent should have the Democrats' national apparatchiks just a tad concerned.
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Does the agreement extend to other serious issues? With talks ongoing and attempts to reach “agreements” on key issues, I&I/TIPP asked: “How much do you trust Iran to comply with international agreements related to its nuclear program?”
The answer again came back negative for Iran, with 66% saying they had either “little trust” (25%) or “no trust at all” (41%). On the other side, just 21% said they would have “a lot of trust” (8%) or “quite a bit of trust” (13%).
In this case, the numbers are as follows: 66 percent overall think Iran won't keep any agreement on nuclear weapons, with 64 percent of Democrats, 67 percent of Republicans, and 70 percent of Independents thinking Iran can't be trusted to keep any agreement. At this juncture, it's tempting to say "duh" and wonder under which rock the people who think Iran's theocracy can be trusted have been living; however, we should note this poll indicates as clear a bipartisan majority as you're likely to find on a major issue like this.
The final question:
As a final question, I&I/TIPP asked voters: “Which concerns you more?”
Overall, 22% answered “Iran developing nuclear weapons,” 31% “The United States becoming involved in another Middle East war,” 39% “Both (previous responses) equally,” 4% “neither,” and 5% not sure.
Parsing this response, a total of 61% listed Iran developing nuclear weapons as a top concern, while 70% mentioned U.S. involvement in another war in the Mideast as their biggest worry.
The United States is indeed caught between the Scylla of a nuclear-armed Iran and the Charybdis of getting sucked into a major regional war (which, mind you, has the potential of expanding).
This conflict has plenty of people worried. It seems to be dragging on and on; every optimistic note about a peace deal seems to be scotched within hours. Someone launches a missile or a drone attack, someone else shoots back, and again it's snap and slash time at the zoo.
What this poll tells us is this: The American people, across the board, don't trust Iran, don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon - President Trump's main goal all along. But this thing shouldn't go in into the midterm elections, or those same people will start wondering whether the administration has what it takes to get a deal with Iran.
On the other hand, if President Trump can conclude a deal, and the oil taps open again with the resulting sharp drop in oil prices, the GOP may be going into the midterms with a very good message indeed.
Stay tuned. It's going to be a very interesting summer.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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